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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd